외교부

【Opening】

  Good Afternoon!

  It is a great pleasure for me to deliver a keynote speech at this conference today commemorating the 25th anniversary of Yonsei GSIS. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dean Lee Chung-min and the students of Yonsei GSIS for kind invitation to this pleasant occasion.

  I greatly appreciate the selection of the conference theme "Beyond the New Millenium : The End of Western Hegemony".  I believe that it is indeed most appropriate and timely. I cannot emphasize more the importance and value of the topic to be discussed.  Indeed, we are living in an increasingly fluid international environment and are therefore faced with a range of challenges. And it is important that we pool our wisdom to identify how best to rise to them.

  Today I would like to share with you some of my thoughts regarding the future international order ahead of us. I would be deeply grateful if we could also elaborate upon and share constructive ideas.  In so doing I believe that we can contribute to the shaping of our strategic vision for a common future.

【Advent of a new international order】

  The rise and fall of Western hegemony

  The term 'Western hegemony' implies that we are living in a Westphalian modern state system that emerged in the 17th century Europe and spread all over the world. Then the international environment provided a fertile ground for the development of modern states characterized by streamlined bureaucracy, a capitalist market system, a powerful military and burgeoning democracy.

  During the second half of the 18th century, industrialization and the mastery of naval technology empowered the British to establish their empire. After the Napoleonic wars a new international order, known as the Concert of Europe, was established in the early 1800s.

  After the Second World War, another Western state, the United States, owing to its enhanced production capacity utilizing the Fordist production method, was able to emerge as the economic powerhouse. Around the end of the war, the US established international institutions such as the Bretton Woods and GATT. A golden era of capitalism emerged in the Western capitalist hemisphere under US hegemony.

  However, the US encountered difficulties imposed by two consecutive oil crises in the 1970s and the excessive expenditure on the Vietnam War. To recoup its deficit the United States pushed for capital liberalization that led to the advent of the Western neoliberalist world economy.

  Through financial liberalization the United States was able to invest in knowledge-based high-technology industries, thus retaining its influence in international relations with its unmatched information-based flexible military. The era of Pax Americana arrived.

  However, the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in 2001 led to the war against terrorism with the attack on Afghanistan and subsequently Iraq. The enormous war expenditure aggravated the US debt problem, and the financial crisis of 2008 beginning with the fall of Lehman Brothers enervated the hegemonic power of the United States.

  The rise of the rest

  Although there is some debate as to whether the US is declining in absolute or relative terms, there accrued some developments that spelled a new era for the rest to rise.

  First of all, the wave of liberalization and democratization that Samuel Huntington termed 'the Third Wave' swept over the autocratic regimes in Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. Asian Tigers such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong rose to prominence with their remarkable economic growth.

  Moreover, the rise of BRICS, namely Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa, is a clear testament to a new era of multipolarity in the international order. Since the year 2000 the BRICS countries have been estimated to have contributed considerably to global economic growth. A Goldman Sachs report noted that by 2050 these economies could together be larger than those of the US, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Japan combined.

  Not least remarkable is the rise of China. After embracing the capitalist system, China achieved tremendous economic growth, ranking second in terms of GDP, with a figure which is now around two fifths of US GDP. Since 2006 it became the greatest foreign reserve holder in the world. In 2009 its military budget ranked second.  There have been some estimates (The Economist) that it shall overtake the US military budget by around 2035.  Moreover, it has been modernizing its military. With regard to the current status of China and its growth prospects, people came to talk of the emergence of a G2 international order to replace the unipolar world order previously led by the United States.

  Let me focus on this topic more deeply since this is one of the most urgent issues which should indeed be addressed in both academia and international politics. The debate on the decline of American hegemony has focussed on two theses: the absolute decline thesis, on the one hand, and the relative decline thesis, on the other.

  First, the absolute decline thesis, in its broadest sense, simply argues that the US could no longer function as the only global power which enforces others to follow the international political order it had produced. The absolute declinists stress that the previously dominant power at dusk is supposed to be replaced by a new rising power. A set of prerogatives – notably, roles as the world police, norm-setter, politico-economic leader across the nations – are likely to be passed from Washington to Beijing.

  Second, while the relative decline thesis admits the undeniable fact that the US predominance across the international community has been withering away, it also emphasizes a historically enriched order the West has shaped: the liberal order. The liberal order is a very peculiar invention which modern Europe and the US have built over the last decades. A set of highly institutionalised practices – international law under the principles of democracy, the world economy under the name of free markets, global interdependence between nation states, and so forth – has indeed stabilized the world and prevented it from being severely jeopardized. Hence, even if we assume that China shall outweigh the US at some point, it does not necessarily entail an automatic replacement of the world order per se. To the extent that China is not prepared to assume the huge responsibility which goes with hegemonic status, the Western order of today, in short, would be hard to overturn and easy to join.

  US-Chinese rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region

  By the way, many people wonder how the United States is going to accommodate a rising China vying for its sphere of influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the US power is waning in relative terms, there are still questions as to whether we may see a retreat of the US across the globe as a part of its retrenchment strategy. However, U.S. President Barack Obama made it clear during his speech at the Australian parliament last November that after a decade in which they fought two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States is turning its strategic attention to the vast potential of the Asia-Pacific region.

  As the world's fastest-growing region which accounts for more than half of the global economy, with most of the world's nuclear power and some half of humanity, the Asia-Pacific region has become one of the most strategically important regions for rising states such as China, India, the United States, and even for South Korea.

  In this region, efforts are being made to build institutional architectures. It is believed that China stresses the role of the ASEAN+3 cooperative architecture in order to enlarge its sphere of influence, while the United States holds its position that the East Asia Summit (EAS) should be developed as the main cooperative multilateral consultative framework to deal with political and security issues in the region. Furthermore, some experts have expressed the view that China is wary of the US initiative to accede to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). As a countermeasure it is believed that China is pursuing bilateral economic arrangements such as agreements on free trade areas with neighboring states.

  Rise of Korea

  Meanwhile, Korea rose from being a war-torn country to a country, ranking 15th in terms of GDP in the world, joining the club with a trade volume more than 1 trillion dollars and the 20-50 club with more than twenty thousand dollars' per capita income and 50 million population. Our status has been elevated to such an extent that last year's Nobel prize laureate Thomas Sargent of New York University said that he is moving to Seoul to learn the miracle of the Korean economy, since Korea is a country that economists would be keen to study.

  Now, Korea, with the vision of a 'Global Korea', has risen in the globalized world by bringing Korea to the global stage, and bringing the global community to Korea. First, we have strengthened our relations with neighboring countries and extended our diplomatic network by conducting active summit meetings and high-level official meetings. Second, we have enhanced our standing in the global community by hosting major international events such as the G20 Seoul Summit, contributing to the efforts to overcome the financial crisis caused by the fall of Lehman Brothers and entering the era of global governance. We have also hosted the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit and the 4th High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan thereby improving our capacity to contribute to security and advancing developmental cooperation. Third, we have extended our FTA networks. Over the last four years we have concluded FTAs with the US, the EU, ASEAN, India and Peru, thus extending our economic territory.

  But we go forward with no illusions. There are plenty of challenges ahead of us. First, the situations on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia have become more volatile since the death of Kim Jung-il. North Korea under the new leadership launched a long-range missile, breaching the so-called Leap day agreement of February 29th with the US, and this has exacerbated the security situation. Moreover, the nuclear issue has escalated as North Korea has recently stipulated itself as a nuclear state in its Constitution, which is a serious breach of international obligations such as the UN Security Council Resolutions. Second, there is the possibility of rivalry between the US and China that might destabilize the security conditions. Since the 'Pivot to Asia', the US has increased its security cooperation with Australia and Japan, while China is swiftly modernizing its military on the basis of its increasing economic strength. Third, we are still facing the instability in the world economy caused by the enduring Euro crisis and the spread of protectionism. There are still suspicions that some southern European countries are reluctant to carry out the austerity measures that are needed to overcome the Euro crisis. Fourth, there are supranational security challenges such as terrorism, piracy, cyber insecurity, and unstable situations in the Middle East following the 'Arab Spring'.

  This new security environment prompts Korea to embrace a proactive diplomatic strategy. Our strategic approach is first to develop and deepen our diplomatic networks with our neighboring countries so as to cope with the unstable conditions in Northeast Asia and lay the bridges among one another. Second, we will realize our vision of a 'Global Korea' by contributing to global prosperity and leading in global issues. Last but not least, we will advance our interests through strategic and comprehensive diplomacy combining both track 1 and track 2 capabilities.

  Specifically, as regards the North Korean nuclear issue our government will make utmost efforts to find ways that will lead us to a comprehensive and fundamental resolution. We will not see the issue as simply a security problem, but approach it while taking into consideration the welfare and human rights conditions of our North Korean citizens, bearing in mind the vision of a unified Korea. As our President stated last April, we do not want armed competition with the North. We will continue our efforts to persuade the North Korean regime to stand on the right side of history by giving up its nuclear weapons program and opening and reforming its economy.

  In view of the US-China relations, we seek to develop the traditional ROK-US alliance into a multi-dimensional alliance, while deepening the strategic cooperative partnership with China. This is based on our belief that our alliance relationship with the US and cooperative partnership with China can both thrive.

  As has been the case so far, the ROK-US Alliance continues to serve as a vital pillar for the security in East Asia and to lay a foundation for unification. With the adoption of the ‘Joint Vision for the ROK-U.S. Alliance’ in June 2009, both countries have proactively responded to the changing security environment in the Asia-Pacific region. And, with the conclusion and ratification of the KOR-US FTA, both countries have elevated our alliance to a multi-dimensional one with the forging of FTA, which is an "economic alliance."

  With regard to China, Korea's diplomacy aims to develop Korea-China relations in harmony with the Korea-US alliance because our relations with China are important not only for the achievement of peace, stability and prosperity in Northeast Asia, but also for the unification of the Korean Peninsula. In 2008, Korea and China upgraded their relations to a 'Strategic Cooperative Partnership'. And this year, we are beginning talks with the future aim of concluding a new FTA to deepen our economic relationship.

  Moreover, we will further contribute to global prosperity. Korea is now seeking to become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for the years of 2013-14. Furthermore, efforts will be made to promote international peace by increasing PKO dispatches and cybersecurity related activities. Korea will also increase its status in terms of international economic governance through the G20 and actively contribute to the strengthening of the free trade system. We are making important steps forward with other aspects of the vision of a 'Global Korea' and implementing development cooperation that is tailored towards individual developing countries, establishing the image of an 'Attractive Korea' by promoting the Korean wave(Hallyu) and communicating closely with the people of other countries through active public diplomacy, securing engines for future growth by expanding the FTA networks, and conducting diplomacy that serves the public.

【Closing】

  The late Eleanor Roosevelt reflected that "great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, small minds discuss people." Today, let us become young great minds that discuss ideas for the new millenium that lies beyond the horizons of a hegemonic era.

  Before closing, I state clearly and with conviction that it should be you, young students that shall lay the bridges between the West and the East, between the North and the South, and between the older generation and younger generation. It is you, the young people with every passion tha can envision a new world and shape history.

  So, I emphasize that you let your dreams and vision soar.  Do not limit your mind in terms of what can be achieved.  Have faith that you can achieve and you can shape a thriving future for mankind, which is a world that future generations will cherish. Do not stop striving for a new international order, in which human dignity is further ensured.  Your calls for a better world shall be echoing in the history of mankind. 
 
  Thank you all for the kind attention.